Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia are once again boiling over, and the question on everyone’s mind is:
Will another war erupt over Nagorno-Karabakh?
Just when the world thought the decades-long conflict had finally settled, disturbing reports suggest that both sides might be gearing up for another showdown.
Could this lead to another bloody confrontation, or is there still a chance to avoid war?
Azerbaijan vs. Armenia – Rising Tensions
For months, whispers of renewed hostilities have been growing louder. Reports from the border suggest that both Azerbaijani and Armenian forces are reinforcing their military positions.
Satellite images indicate troop movements, heavy artillery deployments, and increased military exercises, fueling concerns that a fresh conflict could be just around the corner.
The Azerbaijani government, emboldened by its victory in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, has been making moves that many see as provocative. Meanwhile, Armenia, still reeling from its losses, has been trying to rebuild its military capabilities, receiving support from Russia, Iran, and the Armenian diaspora.
Baku’s Bold Moves – Aliyev’s Next Target?
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has made it clear that his country is far from finished with the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. In a recent speech, he declared:
“We have restored our territorial integrity, but our mission is not over. Any provocations will be dealt with swiftly and decisively.”
These words sent shockwaves across Armenia, where many see them as a thinly veiled threat that Azerbaijan might be preparing for another military operation.
- Azerbaijan’s recent actions include:
- Setting up new military checkpoints along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
- Conducting large-scale military drills near Armenian territory.
- Blocking key supply routes to Armenian-populated areas in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia’s Desperation – Can Pashinyan Hold the Line?
On the other side, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan finds himself in an extremely difficult position. Following Armenia’s humiliating defeat in 2020, his government has struggled with political instability, protests, and a weakened military. Pashinyan recently stated:
“We will not be bullied into surrender. Armenia is prepared to defend its sovereignty at all costs.”
However, Armenia’s military capabilities remain a major concern. Without strong external support, can Yerevan withstand another Azerbaijani offensive?
- Challenges facing Armenia:
- Lack of sufficient military funding compared to Azerbaijan.
- Dependence on Russia, which has been distracted by its war in Ukraine.
- Internal political unrest weakening national unity.
Russia’s Role – A Distracted Ally or a Hidden Player?
For decades, Russia has played the role of Armenia’s primary military ally. However, Moscow’s influence in the region appears to be weakening as it remains deeply engaged in Ukraine.
Some analysts believe that Vladimir Putin might not be able—or willing—to intervene in another conflict in the Caucasus. Others, however, argue that Russia could still pull the strings behind the scenes to maintain its grip over the region.
Iran and Turkey – A Proxy War in the Making?
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has never been just about Armenia and Azerbaijan. Regional powers like Turkey and Iran have long used the dispute to expand their influence.
- Turkey:
- Strongly backs Azerbaijan, providing drones and military expertise.
- Wants to weaken Armenian influence and expand its regional power.
- Iran:
- Historically supports Armenia to counter Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel.
- Views the conflict as a potential threat to its own ethnic Azerbaijani population.
If war breaks out again, expect both Ankara and Tehran to play a role—either directly or through proxy forces.
The Looming Question – War or Peace?
Right now, the region is at a crossroads. Negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been slow and fragile, with both sides accusing each other of bad faith. International efforts to broker peace, led by the U.S. and the EU, have so far failed to produce lasting results.
But with growing military buildups, fiery rhetoric, and regional powers taking sides, is a new war inevitable?
As one Armenian analyst put it:
“If war happens again, it will be deadlier than 2020. And this time, no one knows where it will stop.”
History of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
- 1988 – Start of the Conflict:
- Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh demand independence from Azerbaijan.
- Clashes erupt between Armenian and Azerbaijani communities.
- 1991 – Soviet Collapse and Full-Scale War:
- With the fall of the USSR, Armenia and Azerbaijan fight a brutal war over Nagorno-Karabakh.
- Tens of thousands are killed, and hundreds of thousands are displaced.
- 1994 – Ceasefire Agreement:
- Russia brokers a ceasefire, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh under Armenian control but internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory.
- Periodic border clashes continue in the following years.
- 2016 – The Four-Day War:
- Azerbaijan launches an attack, seizing some territory.
- Fighting ends quickly, but tensions remain high.
- 2020 – The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War:
- Azerbaijan, with Turkish and Israeli support, launches a full-scale war.
- After 44 days, Azerbaijan wins, reclaiming most of Nagorno-Karabakh.
- Russia brokers a ceasefire, deploying peacekeeping forces.
- 2023 – Azerbaijani Blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh:
- Azerbaijan tightens control, blocking essential supplies to Armenian-populated areas.
- Humanitarian crisis worsens, raising fears of renewed conflict.
- 2024 – Rising Tensions:
- Border skirmishes increase, and diplomatic efforts stall.
- Azerbaijan signals it may take further military action.
- 2025 – Is Another War Coming?
- With growing military buildups and fiery rhetoric, many fear another all-out war is imminent.
- Regional powers like Russia, Turkey, and Iran could be drawn into the conflict.
Final Thoughts – What Happens Next?
The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Azerbaijan and Armenia descend into another devastating war or find a way to resolve their differences peacefully.
- Best-Case Scenario: International pressure forces both sides to negotiate a long-term peace settlement.
- Worst-Case Scenario: Another war erupts, drawing in regional and global powers with disastrous consequences.
For now, the world watches as tensions continue to rise, wondering: Will history repeat itself, or can diplomacy prevail?